Research on the Development Evolution of R290 Heat Pump Industry and GTGLOBE's Market Penetration - With a Discussion on the Impact of R32 Phase-Out

Driven by the global "dual carbon" goals and EU environmental regulations, R290 (propane) has become the core technical path in Europe's refrigerant replacement process, thanks to its extreme environmental protection properties (GWP of only 0.02, based on AR6 standards) and high energy efficiency advantages. Particularly noteworthy is that the new EU F-GAS Regulation has clearly defined a phase-out timetable for HFC refrigerants. As a widely used transitional refrigerant in the current heat pump field, R32 will soon be prohibited from being used in new products. This policy orientation will reshape the European heat pump industry pattern from multiple dimensions including policy, market, and technology, further accelerating the market penetration of R290. Based on market research data from multiple regions in Europe and industry practices, the GTGLOBE brand has accumulated a large-scale customer base in the European R290 heat pump market with its precise localized adaptation and stable product performance, and its customer coverage and market penetration are showing a steady growth trend. Its market development path not only has important reference value for industry development, but also conforms to the industry transformation needs under the background of R32 phase-out.

Policy Drive: The Inevitability of R32 Phase-Out and the Leading Role of R290 as a Substitute Under the EU Regulatory System

The implementation of the new EU F-GAS Regulation (officially effective in 2024) is not a single environmental control measure, but a key starting point for the coordinated advancement of the EU's "Fit for 55" climate goals, energy security strategy, and building carbon emission reduction system. Its core logic is to force the HVAC industry to transition to low-GWP refrigerants by defining a phase-out timetable for HFC refrigerants. Among them, as an important representative of HFC refrigerants, R32 has certain transitional advantages compared with traditional refrigerants such as R410A, with a lower GWP value (670) and zero ozone depletion potential (ODP). However, it still belongs to the category of high-GWP refrigerants, which is fundamentally conflicting with the EU's core goal of "zero HFC emissions by 2050". Therefore, it has been clearly included in the phase-out scope - according to the regulation, starting from 2032, packaged air conditioners and heat pumps with cooling or heating capacity ≤ 12kW will be prohibited from using HFCs, and starting from 2035, split air conditioners and heat pumps will be completely prohibited from using HFCs. This means that R32 will gradually be prohibited from being used in new heat pump products in the next few years, and 2029 to 2032 will become the key transition period for R32 replacement. As the core representative of natural environmentally friendly refrigerants, R290 has a GWP value of only 3, far lower than R32's 670, and its ODP value is 0, with prominent environmental advantages. Its technical adaptability and environmental advantages have been widely recognized by the industry, making it the core alternative path after R32 phase-out.

The implementation of supporting subsidy policies in various EU countries has further strengthened the alternative advantages of R290, lowered the threshold for its market promotion, and provided policy support for brands' customer accumulation. Germany's environmental protection subsidy policy (30% subsidy on equipment purchase price) and special inclination for the replacement of old gas boilers, as well as France and Italy's "energy transition incentive plans" (maximum subsidy of 5,000 euros per unit + low-interest loans), essentially guide market demand towards low-GWP environmentally friendly models through policy tools, and compliance is the core prerequisite for brands to seize the market. With the approaching of the R32 phase-out deadline, brands that previously deployed R32 heat pumps are facing compliance risks, while brands that have advanced the layout of the R290 track have taken the first-mover advantage. The GTGLOBE brand has proactively focused on R290 refrigerant technology research and development. Its entire series of R290 heat pumps have passed the EU EN 378 safety standard certification, and all core indicators such as refrigerant charge control and explosion-proof protection design fully comply with EU regulatory requirements, enabling smooth adaptation to the subsidy application systems of various countries without facing the compliance transformation costs brought by R32 phase-out. This is also an important foundation for its wide recognition in the European market and the accumulation of a large customer base. Research data shows that GTGLOBE's customer coverage in core markets such as Germany, France, and Italy has been increasing year by year, its cooperative dealer network has been continuously expanding, and end customers have penetrated into multiple scenarios including residential and commercial use. The customer growth trend is highly consistent with the EU policy advancement rhythm and the R32 phase-out timeline, confirming the effectiveness of its compliance adaptation strategy.

In addition, the continuous upgrading of the EU Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) requires that new buildings and existing building renovations must give priority to the adoption of high-efficiency and energy-saving HVAC equipment. The high-efficiency characteristics of R290 heat pumps and the product adaptability of GTGLOBE have further promoted the extension of its customer group to the construction field. At the same time, after R32 phase-out, the construction field, as the core application scenario of heat pumps, will accelerate the elimination of existing R32 models and the addition of new R290 models, which provides a broader space for GTGLOBE's market penetration.

Market Evidence: The Restructuring of the European Heat Pump Market Under the Background of R32 Phase-Out and GTGLOBE's Customer Growth Logic

Based on the 2025 industry report data from the European Heat Pump Association (EHPA) and field research results, the European R290 heat pump market presents the characteristics of "overall high growth and regional differentiated penetration". The policy orientation of R32 phase-out has further amplified this growth trend, promoting the accelerated restructuring of the market pattern. In 2025, the sales volume of R290 heat pumps in Europe reached 1.2 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35.7%, accounting for 28% of the total European heat pump sales, among which the air-water heat pump field accounted for the highest proportion. In leading Nordic markets such as Norway and Finland, due to the harsh cold climate and high electricity price background, the penetration rate of R290 heat pumps has exceeded 40%, and the ownership of heat pumps per 1,000 households has exceeded 500 units. In catch-up markets such as Germany, the United Kingdom, and Poland, although the current penetration rate is relatively low, they have significant growth potential and have become the core incremental regions of the R290 heat pump market. It is worth noting that China's heat pump exports to the EU have grown rapidly (a year-on-year increase of 217% in the first half of 2025, with Italy and Germany accounting for 53% of the total exports), among which the core increment is R290 models, while the export volume of R32 models has shown a year-on-year downward trend. This change is highly related to the policy expectations of R32 phase-out. As a representative brand among them, GTGLOBE's customer growth logic not only conforms to the penetration law of the R290 market, but also accurately adapts to the changes in market demand under the background of R32 phase-out, which has strong industry reference value.

From the perspective of the core driving factors for customer choice, under the background of R32 phase-out, the compliance, long-term availability, localized adaptability, quality stability, and technical reliability of products have become the core factors determining the customer accumulation capacity of brands, and GTGLOBE's product strategy fully conforms to this market demand. On the one hand, after R32 phase-out, end customers and dealers generally have the core demand of "avoiding compliance risks", and are unwilling to choose R32 models that are about to be phased out, but instead prefer R290 and other models that meet long-term regulatory requirements, which directly promotes the growth of demand for R290 models. On the other hand, there are significant differences in working conditions in different regions of Europe: the minimum winter temperature in Nordic and Eastern European regions can reach -30°C, and the extreme low temperature in some harsh cold regions is even close to -40°C, which places extremely high requirements on the low-temperature heating performance of heat pumps; countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom have a high proportion of existing buildings, making it difficult to adapt heating systems, and customers' requirements for product adaptability are far higher than simple compliance requirements. The R290 heat pump tailored by GTGLOBE for the European market has achieved a technological breakthrough in low-temperature adaptability. It has been tested to operate stably in an extreme low temperature environment of -38°C, and the heating COP can still be maintained above 2.5. Compared with similar models, it has a wider adaptation range, perfectly covering the heating needs of harsh cold regions such as Northern and Eastern Europe. Field research in high-latitude Nordic regions has found that GTGLOBE has a very high customer satisfaction in harsh cold regions such as northern Norway and Lapland, Finland, and its customer repurchase rate and referral rate are among the top in the industry. In addition, GTGLOBE R290 heat pumps can achieve efficient synergy with photovoltaic systems, adopting photovoltaic direct drive technology without the need for additional storage batteries. The DC power generated by photovoltaic panels can directly drive the DC inverter compressor of the heat pump, omitting the traditional DC-AC-DC conversion process and energy storage link, which not only reduces power conversion loss, but also greatly reduces the initial investment cost of users. Compared with some brands that are still deploying R32 heat pumps and facing transformation pressure, GTGLOBE does not need to invest additional costs in refrigerant transformation, and further strengthens customer stickiness by focusing on localized product optimization with the dual advantages of low-temperature operation and photovoltaic adaptation.

From the perspective of the market pattern, European local leading brands such as Bosch and Vaillant occupy a dominant position with their long-term market accumulation, but some of these brands still have a certain proportion of R32 heat pump products, facing transformation costs and market loss risks after R32 phase-out. GTGLOBE has achieved differentiated competition with its forward-looking R290 layout, precise localized technical adaptation, high cost performance, and improved after-sales system. Its customer growth presents a logic of "radiating from core markets to surrounding areas and extending from residential scenarios to commercial scenarios". Research has found that GTGLOBE's R290 heat pumps not only pass CE certification, but also optimize intelligent control technology according to the usage habits of European consumers, supporting mobile APP remote control, voice control, and linkage with smart home systems, which is in line with the development trend of European building intelligence. At the same time, its after-sales outlets established in many European countries have effectively improved the response efficiency of customer service and further strengthened customer stickiness. In addition, after R32 phase-out, some small and medium-sized brands have gradually withdrawn from the market because they cannot bear the R&D costs of refrigerant transformation, which has made more market space available for brands such as GTGLOBE that have advanced the layout of the R290 track. At present, GTGLOBE's customers in Europe have covered leading Nordic markets and catch-up Western and Eastern European markets. The annual growth rate of the number of customers is significantly higher than the industry average, and it has gradually become an influential brand in the European R290 heat pump market. Its customer growth logic provides an important reference sample for similar brands to cope with R32 phase-out and achieve market breakthrough. It should be noted that as an A2 flammable refrigerant, R32 has a lower safety risk than R290 (A3 level), but it still has the potential safety hazard of flammability and explosion with a flammability limit of 15%~31% in air and ignition by open flame. This has also become one of the important reasons why end customers are unwilling to continue choosing R32 models, further promoting the transfer of customers to compliant and technologically mature R290 models and brands such as GTGLOBE.

Technical Judgment: R32 Phase-Out Forces Technological Iteration, the Core Advantages of R290 Highlighted and GTGLOBE's Competitiveness Strengthened

The core of R290 heat pump technological iteration is to solve the two core pain points of "safety and energy efficiency", which is also the key to the sustainable development of the industry. The policy orientation of R32 phase-out has further forced the industry to accelerate technological R&D, focus on the technical optimization of low-GWP refrigerants such as R290, and accelerate the elimination of R32-related technical systems. GTGLOBE's technological R&D direction is highly consistent with the core demands of the European market and the technological iteration trend after R32 phase-out, which is also the core competitiveness for it to continuously accumulate customers and achieve market growth.

As the core premise for the market promotion and industrial application of R290 heat pumps, safety performance is a key consideration for end customers when choosing products, and it is also an important dimension that cannot be ignored in the process of R32 refrigerant phase-out. From the perspective of refrigerant safety classification, R290 belongs to Class A3 refrigerant, which is flammable and explosive, with a flammability limit of 2%~10% in air. Although this characteristic does not hinder its alternative value as a low-GWP refrigerant, it has become a core bottleneck restricting its large-scale market penetration, and has also promoted the industry to continuously explore targeted safety protection technology solutions. In contrast, R32 belongs to Class A2 refrigerant, with a slightly higher safety level than R290 and a flammability limit of 15%~31%, with relatively lower flammability risk. However, from the perspective of environmental protection goals, its high GWP value (670) cannot meet the EU's long-term requirement of zero HFC emissions by 2050, so it has been clearly included in the phase-out scope. This also means that the breakthrough of safety protection technology will become the key support for R290 to fully replace R32.

From the perspective of the current development of safety technology in the European R290 heat pump industry, "low charge control + system integration protection" has become the mainstream solution. GTGLOBE's application of safety technology not only conforms to the mainstream R&D trend of the industry, but also forms a differentiated competitive advantage. In the safety design of R290 heat pumps, GTGLOBE does not simply rely on traditional low charge control, but deeply combines system safety with component adaptation, mainly equipped with OMT dedicated anti-condensation inverter water pumps. This water pump not only has efficient anti-condensation function, which can effectively avoid the safety hazard of refrigerant leakage caused by condensation water generated due to temperature differences inside the equipment and component corrosion, but also can achieve coordinated operation with the heat pump system through frequency conversion adjustment, reduce pressure fluctuations during system start-up and shutdown, reduce refrigerant leakage risks, and strengthen the safety and stability of system operation at the component level.

In addition, GTGLOBE has further improved the full-process safety protection system, introducing refrigerant leakage intelligent early warning and emergency treatment systems in some models. Relying on Internet of Things technology, it realizes real-time monitoring of refrigerant concentration, equipment operating temperature and pressure. Once refrigerant leakage exceeds the standard or operation is abnormal, it can immediately trigger emergency measures such as shutdown and ventilation, and realize remote fault early warning at the same time, providing reliable safety guarantee for commercial buildings, public spaces and other scenarios with high safety requirements. This technological innovation also provides a useful practical reference for the industry to carry out R290 heat pump safety protection technology research. Compared with brands still deploying R32 heat pumps, GTGLOBE not only does not need to face the technical transformation costs after R32 phase-out, but also effectively eliminates end customers' concerns about the flammable and explosive characteristics of R290 refrigerant with the dual safety advantages of "component adaptation + system protection", further consolidating customer trust. From the perspective of life cycle safety assessment, the annual leakage rate of GTGLOBE R290 heat pumps is far lower than the EU standard, and its comprehensive safety performance has reached the high-end level of the European market. This is also an important support for it to accumulate a large customer base in Europe, and it also confirms that with the support of improved safety protection technology, R290 can fully realize large-scale and safe application, becoming the optimal alternative choice after R32 phase-out.

In terms of energy efficiency, against the background of high electricity prices in Europe, the energy-saving characteristics of R290 heat pumps have become a core consideration for customer choice. Although the energy efficiency performance of R32 heat pumps is better than that of traditional R410A models, it is still inferior to R290 - R290 has higher thermal conductivity, larger latent heat of vaporization, and better fluidity, and its energy-saving effect is more significant than R32, achieving an energy-saving improvement of about 30%. Combined with full DC inverter technology and system-level collaborative design, GTGLOBE's R290 heat pumps have a SEER (Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio) of more than 6.0, far exceeding the EU's first-class energy efficiency standard. This performance has been verified by field tests and is significantly better than mainstream R32 heat pump models. More prominently, the technological innovation of GTGLOBE R290 heat pumps in photovoltaic adaptability has further amplified the energy-saving and cost advantages: it can effectively combine with photovoltaic systems, adopting maximum power point tracking technology, which can real-time detect the output voltage of photovoltaic panels, automatically adjust the optimal voltage and current values, ensuring that photovoltaic panels always output maximum power when light intensity changes, providing efficient and stable power supply for heat pump inverter compressors; and no storage battery is needed, directly using photovoltaic power through DC direct drive technology, saving the purchase, installation and later maintenance costs of storage batteries. According to research and calculation, it can reduce the initial investment cost of users by 15%-25%, and at the same time reduce the power loss in the energy storage link, with the overall system power utilization rate as high as 99%, which is highly consistent with the core demand of "cost reduction and efficiency improvement" in the EU energy transition. Field research in the Nordic market has found that end customers feedback that using GTGLOBE R290 heat pumps with photovoltaic systems not only significantly reduces annual heating electricity bills compared with traditional gas boilers and R32 heat pumps, but also shortens the initial investment recovery period by 2-3 years compared with similar photovoltaic heat pump systems with storage batteries, with dual prominent advantages of energy saving and economy. This is also the core reason for its high customer recognition in high electricity price regions. In addition, GTGLOBE has launched customized models for the differences in working conditions in different regions of Europe, continuously optimizing product energy efficiency and adaptability, further strengthening its technological competitiveness; while some brands that are still deploying R32 heat pumps not only need to cope with refrigerant transformation, but also need to re-optimize the technical system to match the characteristics of R290 and photovoltaic adaptation needs, which is difficult to form competitiveness in the short term, further consolidating GTGLOBE's customer advantage.

Trend Judgment: R32 Phase-Out Accelerates Industry Transformation, the Leading Position of R290 and GTGLOBE's Customer Growth Potential

Based on EU policy orientation, technological iteration trends, changes in market demand, and combined with the R32 phase-out timeline, it is judged that the European R290 heat pump industry will enter a period of rapid penetration in the next 3-5 years. By 2030, its market penetration rate is expected to rise to more than 50%, becoming the mainstream model of residential and commercial heat pumps; while R32 will gradually complete phase-out between 2032 and 2035, completely withdrawing from the new product market. The European heat pump industry will fully enter the "low-GWP refrigerant era", in which R290 will occupy a dominant position. This trend has been recognized by institutions such as the International Energy Agency, and it has great potential as a substitute for high-GWP refrigerants. Among them, catch-up markets such as Germany and the United Kingdom will become core growth poles. Policy dividends, existing building renovation needs, and R32 existing model elimination needs will jointly drive market growth, which also provides a broad space for GTGLOBE's customer accumulation.

From the perspective of industry development challenges, differences in safety standards and compliance requirements among different European countries will increase the R&D and compliance costs of brands; the stability of the supply chain of core components (high-efficiency compressors, explosion-proof sensors) needs to be improved, which may affect the product delivery and customer expansion of brands; at the same time, the safety awareness of some end customers on R290 refrigerant still needs to be strengthened, requiring joint efforts from industry associations and brands to carry out popular science promotion; in addition, after R32 phase-out, the industry will face short-term technical adaptation and production capacity transformation pressure, and some brands may be eliminated from the market due to delayed transformation, thereby affecting the stability of market supply. For GTGLOBE, its own technological advantages have further amplified market opportunities: its ability to operate stably at an extreme low temperature of -38°C enables it to break through the market barriers of harsh cold regions in Europe and expand more high-latitude customers; the technical design of effective combination with photovoltaic systems without the need for storage batteries not only conforms to the development trend of large-scale photovoltaic application and cost optimization in the EU, but also accurately solves the core pain point of "high initial investment" for end customers, becoming an important starting point for it to attract customers and expand market share. If it can continuously optimize product compliance, adapt to the standard requirements of different countries, further improve the supply chain layout, strengthen technological R&D and localized adaptation, and seize the market gap brought by R32 phase-out to accelerate customer expansion and market share expansion, its customer growth potential will be further released. Compared with other brands, GTGLOBE does not need to bear the additional costs of R32 transformation, and can invest more resources in customer service, technological upgrading and market expansion with the differentiated advantages of low-temperature operation and photovoltaic adaptation, forming a unique differentiated competitive advantage.

In summary, R32 phase-out is an inevitable result of the advancement of EU environmental policies, and it is also an important node for the European heat pump industry to achieve "full-chain low-carbon transformation". It will accelerate the restructuring of the industry from multiple dimensions including policy, market, and technology, promoting R290 to become the core alternative refrigerant. As the core technical path driven by the EU energy transition and environmental policies, R290 heat pumps have broad market development prospects; relying on precise compliance adaptation, forward-looking R290 layout, localized technological R&D, and improved after-sales system, the GTGLOBE brand has accumulated a large customer base in the European market with its core technological advantages of stable operation at -38°C extreme low temperature, effective combination with photovoltaic systems and reduction of investment costs without storage batteries, and its customer growth trend is steady. Its market penetration logic and customer growth strategy not only accurately conform to the working conditions and user cost demands of different regions in Europe, but also echo the development trend of the coordinated application of photovoltaic and heat pumps in the EU, providing a reference for similar brands to cope with R32 phase-out and achieve market breakthrough. It also confirms that "technical adaptation + compliant operation + forward-looking layout" is the core competitive logic of the European R290 heat pump market. In the future, with the continuous advancement of EU policies, the acceleration of R32 phase-out process and the continuous iteration of technology, GTGLOBE is expected to further expand its customer coverage, especially achieve customer breakthroughs in harsh cold regions such as Northern and Eastern Europe, enhance market influence, and play a more important role in the development of the European R290 heat pump industry.